Michael Pachter Is Pessimistic About Nintendo Switch’s Longterm Success



The Nintendo Switch has been a major success for Nintendo so far, and has become their fastest selling home console of all time. The console is still selling out in some parts of the world, so it’s safe to say demand still outweighs supply (atleast in some countries). But veteran analyst Michael Pachter still isn’t swayed by these figures, and is pessimistic about the Switch’s longterm success.

On the latest episode of Pachter Factor (episode 72, for those that are curious), Pachter received a question regarding the Switch’s success and whether or not Sony and Microsoft would make their own portable consoles. Pachter’s answer was a resounding ‘No’ followed by several more ‘no’s’ but we’ll get to that later, stating that the portable console market has been ruled by Nintendo from the very beginning. Sony tried to compete with them by making the PSP and the PS Vita, but they sold nowhere near as much as any Nintendo handheld console.

Pachter then expressed doubt about the Switch’s longterm success, saying that even though the Switch has sold 3 million units so far, it is still too early to decide whether it will be a major success or not: “What would happen if I told you I know, and I don’t, that demand for the Switch is, there’s only 2 more million that people wanna buy and then no one will ever buy one again? You can’t know that until supply and demand are in balance. We don’t know what the demand is for the Switch.”

Pachter also predicted that the Switch’s lifetime sales, and therefore its success, also depends on the consoles price and any future price cuts, but it will have hard time catching up to Nintendo other handhelds.

“We know a bunch of analysts are saying it sells 16, 20, a 100 lifetime units or more. Let’s see, the truth is I think it sells between 50 and 70 million which is great but not as good as any of their handhelds and if they keep the price at $300, 50 (million lifetimes units), if they cut the price to $200 pretty quickly, 70 (million units), if they cut the price to $100, then 90 (million units). But at $300 there’s no way they’re selling more than 50 million.”

Even though Nintendo Switch has sales figures of around the 5 Million mark already , can the trend be derailed in the years to come? Seems unlikely but stranger things have happened. So do you think Pachter has a point here regarding Nintendo Switch sales ? let us know by commenting in the comments section below.


    I think that, thie first year will be the best year for switch, cause, unlike any other system before, it will have ist best two franchises launching in the 1st year, along with splatoon, MK, xenoblades. I dont think they will get another year like this one. But, who knows when they can manufacture enough switches to keep them available on shelves.

  • PlaySaviour4

    I went to Costco and I saw 4K Tv’s are as cheap as can be and I was like $500! Are you kidding me?!

    It was wise of Sony to target 4K gaming via checker board rendering instead of native 4K content.

    PS4 has pretty much cornered the home console market at 60% market share by now.

    I hope the PS5 comes out with an optional screen like a laptop.

    Next year tablets and smartphones with attachable controllers will be the trend for mobile.
    Mobile accounts for 35% of the video games market today.

  • PachterStation

    I wonder how many 3DS/2DS owners will buy a Switch? That’s what Nintendo is relying on. Most 3DS owners spat at the Wii U. Games wise on the Switch, it’s been decent, considering Wii U ports like Zelda and Mario Kart (the soon to be released Mario was apparently a canned Wii U game). Testing times for Nintendo. If the bulk of 3DS/2DS owners don’t part with their money, the Switch will be doomed. Average third-party support, same old franchises from Nintendo, those £50 game cards, dire online play and around £385 for a Switch with a game and a pro controller, there’s a big possibility it’ll run out of gas going into 2018/19.

  • Pingback: Too Early To Judge Nintendo Switch Success, Says Michael Pachter | One Angry Gamer()

  • HAppY_KrAToS

    The switch is walking on the same exact footsteps as the wiiU: those who wanted to buy it, simply bought it. There are the die hard Nintendo fans, who will buy anything nintendo does.. then we have the old fans, who have been playing on nintendo since the first consoles…and finally there are the curious, the dads… who want their kids to avoid violent online games…
    Those guys account for 5 to 10 million. .. max 15 million buyers… and that’s all.
    Once they buy it, sales reached its peaks.just like what happened to the wiiU.

    Then, as time goes by, fans learn this or that game won’t be made on the switch…. turning the switch into a nintendo box that will only play nintendo games. …