Michael Pachter Is Pessimistic About Nintendo Switch’s Longterm Success



The Nintendo Switch has been a major success for Nintendo so far, and has become their fastest selling home console of all time. The console is still selling out in some parts of the world, so it’s safe to say demand still outweighs supply (atleast in some countries). But veteran analyst Michael Pachter still isn’t swayed by these figures, and is pessimistic about the Switch’s longterm success.

On the latest episode of Pachter Factor (episode 72, for those that are curious), Pachter received a question regarding the Switch’s success and whether or not Sony and Microsoft would make their own portable consoles. Pachter’s answer was a resounding ‘No’ followed by several more ‘no’s’ but we’ll get to that later, stating that the portable console market has been ruled by Nintendo from the very beginning. Sony tried to compete with them by making the PSP and the PS Vita, but they sold nowhere near as much as any Nintendo handheld console.

Pachter then expressed doubt about the Switch’s longterm success, saying that even though the Switch has sold 3 million units so far, it is still too early to decide whether it will be a major success or not: “What would happen if I told you I know, and I don’t, that demand for the Switch is, there’s only 2 more million that people wanna buy and then no one will ever buy one again? You can’t know that until supply and demand are in balance. We don’t know what the demand is for the Switch.”

Pachter also predicted that the Switch’s lifetime sales, and therefore its success, also depends on the consoles price and any future price cuts, but it will have hard time catching up to Nintendo other handhelds.

“We know a bunch of analysts are saying it sells 16, 20, a 100 lifetime units or more. Let’s see, the truth is I think it sells between 50 and 70 million which is great but not as good as any of their handhelds and if they keep the price at $300, 50 (million lifetimes units), if they cut the price to $200 pretty quickly, 70 (million units), if they cut the price to $100, then 90 (million units). But at $300 there’s no way they’re selling more than 50 million.”

Even though Nintendo Switch has sales figures of around the 5 Million mark already , can the trend be derailed in the years to come? Seems unlikely but stranger things have happened. So do you think Pachter has a point here regarding Nintendo Switch sales ? let us know by commenting in the comments section below.